Conflict with China: Beijing and DC’s military honchos aren’t talking, and that’s worrying

U.S. administrations under both parties, Republican and Democrat, have been attempting for decades to establish a reliable military-to-military hotline with China to manage security crises. Washington and Moscow maintained one during the Cold War, primarily to guard against unintentional nuclear exchanges.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama and other U.S. leaders signed agreements with China to establish, in theory, such a hotline, but they’ve never taken hold. Technically, a line exists between the Pentagon and the People’s Liberation Army’s command — but the Chinese simply don’t answer it.

Beijing, according to current and former U.S. officials, sees such mechanisms as potentially legitimizing the presence of American military vessels and aircraft near China’s borders, and prefers to keep its intentions ambiguous. During times of tension and distrust, the PLA prefers to keep the Pentagon at a distance, say these officials, despite the potential for miscalculation.

American officials appeared to have hopes that communication with Beijing would improve after U.S. President Joe Biden’s November meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Bali, during which the two sides attempted to hit reset on their spiraling relationship. Defense Secretary Austin also met his Chinese counterpart in Indonesia. But the Chinese argue that Biden has failed to honor the terms laid out there.

“Whether China-U.S. relations can quickly get back onto the right track of implementing the common understandings of the Bali meeting depends on the words and deeds of the U.S. side for the next stage,” Beijing’s acting ambassador, Xu Xueyuan, said last week. She pointed to Biden’s decision to shoot down China’s balloon as one particular point of tension.